I will weigh in on this ROTW since I have a different opinion than both TGJB and RAGROBES.

We had a discussion on this board not long ago about the grind of too-fast-too-early and the TC on Smarty Jones and I think Lion Heart is a classic example (as much so as SJ). True, he did not run in the Belmont but he had several fast 2 year-old races and 4 big efforts in a row this spring starting with the San Rafael followed by the BG, Derby and Preakness. Not to mention he appears to have some distance limitations given his breeding and running style so those last 2 spring efforts probably really took a toll given his willingness to try hard even after he is tired and beyond his best distance. I think he could fall apart at any time and is a play against from now on. He may last through the Haskell but I will take a pass on him. Keep in mind though that I was also betting against him in his last 3 races (TGJB liked him in the Derby and I did not) and he has ran well in all three..

I think My Snookie's Boy is the value in here. He gets the rail and a repeat of his last could win this. His last was very impressive in that he took on Lion Heart from start to finish and almost won despite that not being his normal running style.

I would expect a possible change in tactics today and Lion Heart also picks up 5 lbs and an extra 1/6 of a mile.

The TG stats say summer dirt 3yos have a 1 in 3 chance to pair a new top but if you factor in the trainer and the fact MSB has a strong overall line (note that all of his 2-turn races have been tops) and he has run 2 staight tops at Mth then I think he is about 50/50 to run another big one and could turn the tables on LH this time even if LH runs well (and LH may not even run his race given the above discussion.) MSB will likely feel the effects of his recent races at some point but he may have another good effort or two in him before then.

I agree that Pie's Prospect is live but I doubt he will go off at anything near his morning line. If he does, he is value.

Rock Hard Ten could be any type and may have really benefitted by missing the Derby and is likely to move forward sometime soon and it might be today but he will be overbet.

Good luck to all.

Chris