I think Lion Heart was certainly one of the best of his crop at Derby time, but I am less convinced than most that his recent efforts are all that good in light of the passage of time since spring. IMO, he hasn't made much if any progress. He may even be worse than his springtime peak so far.

Some of his spring efforts were a lot better than they looked not only because of the ground loss, but because of the amount of effort on the first turn to get and sustain position while so wide.

I don't think his Haskell prep effort was up to that standard considering he was life and death to beat a 2nd stringer while overcoming a similarly tough trip.

I am willing to grant that he may not have been 100% that day. Even his trainer said it was a prep. So he was very likely to move forward off that mediocre effort.

As far as I am concerned, in the Haskell he had one of his easiest trips ever and he was still not drawing off to a big win against a field that was only two deep. The other of course was RHT who was horrible. You can't draw ANY conclusions about figures or performance based on RHT's effort there. (by the way I agree with the consensus that RHT was an underlay at 4-5)

One thing is certain, 10 furlongs is not Liion Heart's best distance.

So if I am right about his recent performances (that he hasn't made any progress), he is a definite bet against in the Travers if anyone that shows up looks like a legitimate improving 3YO that wants 10 furlongs.