Re: Stronach Pick-5... (1280 Views)
Posted by:
Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: September 28, 2018 02:51AM
Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> With wagering minimums watered down, I have to
> disagree. There are plenty of low takeout p5
> wagers out there on a daily basis for fifty cents.
>
>
> This one has the low takeout of 12 percent and the
> higher minimum forces better decision making
> rather than spread, spread, spread at the low
> minimum. With $2 Pick 6's likely to disappear
> sooner than later except on the biggest days of
> the year due to jackpot greed by the racetracks,
> this is a welcome wager I will certainly agree.
> The result will be higher payoffs as compared to
> parlay than the fifty cent varieties. Rocky can
> you weigh in with a more intelligent explanation
> here?
>
Mathematically (and from what I've observed empirically), it makes no difference -- the invisible hand of the market tends to drive payouts towards what's expected based on the takeout-adjusted win parlays, regardless of minimum bet size.
The only exception might be when dealing with winning sequences comprised of long-priced combos in very small pools for which there might otherwise be no winning tickets if not for the smaller bet size. This will probably rarely be the case with this bet however, considering the industry-low takeout which will likely attract strong betting interest.
On the whole though, a lower minimum bet benefits anyone who's not a "big fish" since it levels the playing field by enabling smaller players to compete with the same fully fleshed out tickets as the whales. It also used to help prevent Uncle Sam from confiscating a player's gross winnings when the payout exceeded the $5,000 threshold, but with the new IRS withholding rules being based on total wager amount rather than base bet that's no longer a concern.
The only time you really see small minimum bet sizes creating the kind of spreading that produces payouts that diverge with some regularity from what's expected based on the takeout-adjusted parlays is with the jackpot wagers. And that's actually a boon to astute handicappers since the jackpot chasers produce overlaid prices on logical contenders as a result of their rampant spreading.
The point about higher minimums forcing better decision-making and reducing sloppy betting practices is another matter -- that speaks to the importance of sound betting strategy and money management, which should of course be done regardless of minimum bet size.
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