BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My track record betting Derby preps is pretty bad,
> but I keep trying. How the track is playing could
> be a big variable, but three horses interest me in
> the LeComte:
>
> Malpais - Michael Beychok mentioned this horse on
> Jason Beem's podcast. He's a little slow on TG,
> but this is only his third start, and he stretches
> out to two turns for the first time. Drawn inside
> and coming out of a sprint, he figures to save
> ground and possibly be on a clear lead. Pedigree
> isn't great for routes, and there's the risk of a
> fast pace, but the price could be there. He's
> only 12-1 (which I would not take) on the morning
> line, but 28-1 on Public Handicapper.

[b]BitPlayer, you probably known Mr. Beychok is familiar with the cajun culture as well as this board. He used to post here but now he gets paid for his thoughts. With Mr. Money scratched Malpais' job gets easier but Manny Wah also likes to run up front.[/b]


> Tackett - Also drawn inside, he showed the ability
> to sit behind horses in his last. He's faster
> than Malpais, but still a little slower than the
> fastest ones. Ground loss could make the
> difference. I like the last pair at two turns,
> and the second place finisher in his last race
> (Owendale) came back to run faster (at least
> according to Beyer) in an allowance race on
> Thursday. He's 6-1 on the morning line (good
> enough for me), but only 9-2 on Public
> Handicapper.

[b]#2 Tackettt is easy to like he hasn't done anything wrong yet. I like his sire Limehouse for a classic distance influence and I agree 6/1 is a fair price.[/b]

> Manny Wah - Last race was very fast relative to
> these. Was the big new top a result of the cut
> back to 6 furlongs or the addition of blinkers?
> The longer distance, outside post, and possible
> bounce are issues, as is the prospect of a fast
> pace, but the odds could justify the risk. He's
> 10-1 on the morning line and 25-1 on Public
> Handicapper.

[b]I worry that Manny Wah does not have any more improvement for awhile. In fact he,imo, is a bounce candidate as fit as his line appears. But price has blinded me to blemishes in the past.[/b]

> I should also mention Hog Creek Hustle. He also
> ran pretty well in the Sugar Bowl at 6 furlongs,
> but he looks more like a sprinter to me.

[b]I played and won on Admire on an off track at CD he was very game in that race and looks to me that he has a future and in my view he's an overlay today. #12 Plus Que Parfait closes like a bullet train and in the slop to boot a live one. Even #10 Chase the Ghost looks to enjoy stretching out. Apparently lots of live horses in a good race to get lucky in.

Thanks for bringing it up![/b]