Mike C Wrote:
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> I like Manny Wah-he has enough speed to get a good
> trip and a return to his top today should be
> enough; PP14 may be too much for the favorite War
> of Will, even if he pairs up.

Hmm..?

The way I envision the race being run is #13 Kingly heads for the lead he's been trained to do just that by BB. #14 War of Will who has similar traits will be at his side what else can they do from out there?

The first crisis is what happens in the first turn will the two outsider clear? Of those nearer the rail who is gonna make them earn it. Both #7 Manny Wah & #8 Owensdale have previously been with the pacesetters. They probably won't contest the lead but will be in the mix occupying some space and present obstacles for the two outside.

#3 Mr. Money is the proverbial "Fly In The Ointment" he hasn't run since the BCJ where he ran just off of the very fast pace and held well that day. So that one could really complicate things if jockey Saez opts to push go.

Down the back stretch not much will happen some jockeying for position here and there the as they head into the second turn the race heats up the 13 & 14 figure to be leading the pack imho and the pace need not be fast so they are gonna be hard to catch and pass.

#13 Kingly likely moves first and may develop some separartion as they exit the turn. When it comes down to late pace I expect only three to change places with those in front of them. #14 but he's probably been cooked by the pace and as a bounce candidate has a good excuse to stop. #10 Limonix who I doubt will be as far back as he was in the KYJC and #'s 2,4 will probably be too far removed to win but may jump up and the impeccably name Hog Creek Hustle may be closer up and I also consider him a bounce candidate.

I expect a gaggle at the top of the stretch led by #13 Kingly & #3 Mr. Money. Manny Wah is a live one I agree. #1 Plus Que Parfait about the same price as Manny could also prove tough.

In the end Baffert's colt needs to jump up and in the stretch to be a part of the tri but at m/l 13/1 with the others needing to pass him as I see it he's a use at the price but not dependable. My exacta probables include #1, #3, #7, #10, #12. As good as 6,8,14 have been the price is just not there in what I see a a great betting race.