Re: Keenland 9th- RAG/TG Diff (382 Views)
Posted by: bluechip21
Date: April 15, 2019 11:53AM
This is where experience reading the sheets come into play. You may see a few horses in a race with a similar figure, say a 6. This does not mean each horse has an equal shot of winning. You need to consider how those horses got to that number and how the figure to run off of that number. There are countless angles out there that players use, some much more popular and widely known than others. It is up to you, the handicapper, to handicap the race. All the sheets provide you is the very best information available to help you make decisions.
In the example you cite above, the horse paired his 2YO top and then did it again, normally people may play against the horse next out, but a keen trainer (Cox) and adequate time off between his last race suggested a move forward was possible. Where as the favorite was coming off a significant top in a race run 3 weeks ago. I’ll also point out Sueno (the 2nd choice), who you may argue had a similar looking numbers to the winner. The difference, for me at least, was the quick turn around coming off consecutive pairs on short rest, while trying to chase derby points. Meanwhile, Cox, who spots his horses carefully, sits out the derby hype and swoops in to collect a $200K check. (I did not cash on the race)
As is inferred in a reply, there is no magic bullet that is going to make picking winners seem obvious to you.