Re: Derby (1219 Views)
Posted by:
Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: April 22, 2019 08:48PM
I have been looking for a thread on which to interject this thought I have. But first, while JB's interest in the last series of preps could mean anything what is essential to me is the TG pattern reads from the seminar... progress or regress with so many capable entries. What JB finds interesting kinda hooks ya though doesn't it?
But back to the thought that's been buggin me.... The Santa Anita Derby. In addition to an the unusual track condition, I'm concerned about the race dynamics in a way in which I have not seen discussed.
Instagrand does not qualify as cheap speed in my book. OK he's no classic distance colt but, hey pace guys, I want to give Game Winner some credit for staying close to Instagrand on a pace that I think can only be guessed at. The clock is dubious here considering Belinda turned the surface into Zuma Beach. up by the lifeguard tower not down by the water.
A lot has been made of Roadster making up ground late with no other horse doing so on the day. What if Game Winner was spent from what amounted to a :45 1:10 or even :46 1:11 pace masked by the track condition. We know generally when we see horses making up ground its because the lead horse is slowing down.
Mike Smith, could be smart enough to have won that race. Staying on Roadster as obvious as it may have been to bystanders, the jockey's choice could have meant Roadster does not have enough early speed to win the Ky Derby according Money Mike's read.
I want to upgrade Game Winner.
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