A. Foaled Feb 11, 2016. One of the older 3 y/o's in the field.

Auction History
B. Sold KEENOV 2017 by Lanes End to [color=#0000FF][url=http://www.taylormadeadvantage.com/staff]Taylor Made Sales Agency[/url][/color] $100K

C. Sold KEESEP 2018 by Taylor Made to Maverick Racing & [url=http://chinahorseclub.com/en/about-us/introduction/]China Horse Club[/url] $200K

D. Couldn't determine who Maverick Racing was other Marshal Maverick power boat racing, Trans Am auto racing no connection to James Garner. It appears to me that [url=http://www.winstarfarm.com/]Winstar Farm[/url] replaced Maverick in any event.

So [b]Improbable[/b] (whose name is surely significant) was not a particularly expensive. A nice prospect for a syndicate like CHC and at the price plenty of upside.

Winstar gives the colt to Baffert (somewhat noteworthy) for training. This is a relatively new partnership with both partners probably looking forward to future success and connected to the Justify deal

9/29/2018 - Baffert wastes no time debuting @ Santa Anita besting Grey Magician and 4 lesser-knowns at odds on. Going 3 wide and getting up after a sub :22 1st quarter.

11/2/2018 - Next BB sends him to CD with his Breeders Cup contingent where once again @ odds on he crushes to field in the Street Sense Stakes at one mile. Once again 3 wide and 3rd early.

12/8/2018 - About a month later in the Los Alamitos Derby [b]Improbable[/b] (again @ odds on) runs down Mucho Gusto while again 3 wide and from 3rd early. This time @ 1+1/16th.

My guess is that the colts throat surgery followed not long after. C/B the throat condition had something to do with his name?

3/16/2019 - The undefeated colt, now on the Ky Derby trail, ships to OP for the Rebel and loses for the first time by being narrowly out finished. Most would say his 5 wide trip kept him from being undefeated.

4/13/2019 - Needing points and with an excuse for losing the colt comes back in the Ark Derby. This time he runs into a sloppy track and a buzz saw named [b]Omaha Beach[/b]. Beaten only a length, this time @ 1+1/8, is not an embarrassment. His TG figure earned proves that the effort was impressive. Acting up before the race, odd for impeccably trained Baffert horses. Purists could argue he wins the race if not for 5 wide trip.

[b]Opinion[/b]
If you want to toss Improbable at projected double digits, a horse whose sum total of beaten by distance is a length and a head, one would have to find a reason other than actual performance. Sire [b]City Zip[/b] is not known for getting progeny which race wide.

If we want to toss the colt because City Zip is not considered to have the stamina to win at 1+1/4. Nobody is questioning Tapit (yet) with no derby winners, yeah [b]Tonalist[/b] inherited the Belmont Stakes that's not the same.

Jose Ortiz not shy nor hesitant to mix it up, that is my concern a troubled trip. Pretty sure the horse likes to run on the outside, ground loss is predictable.

I fully appreciate that the KY Derby and a 1+1/4 miles requires stamina (or great condition e.g. [b]Nyquist[/b], [b]Always Dreaming[/b]) but I prefer a horse proven at 1+1/8 who consistently contends to a stamina only plodder bobbing and weaving down the final stretch coming up short and me scratching my head and thinking if he had that much left why didn't he start his run sooner?