Re: Figure Based Handicapping Gambling Question for Jerry (753 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: June 13, 2019 02:55PM
I think the best I can do with this is to frame it as, if you give two horses an equal chance at level weights, how much do I think a one point weight advantage is worth in terms of chance of winning, on a percentage basis. And the answer is, depends on how sold the horses are. In a grass stake race, where they run their race a very high percentage of the time (and assuming no discernable trip advantage), it's worth a real lot. In a race with more volatile dirt horses, not nearly as much.