After a quick glance at the sheets for the ROTW you might conclude that it is a 2-horse race because Nothing to Lose and Silver Tree are both clearly faster than the field, however, "upon closer inspection" I think it is actually pretty wide-open and potentially chaotic and that pace and trip will likely determine the outcome (as is often the case in turf racing), which means there could be some big prices on the board when it is over.

As TG notes, Silver Tree drew outside and has a habit of going wide even from good posts and could easily lose several points in ground to others in the race. I think the same case could also be made (although to a lesser extent) for Nothing To Lose. I agree that he is likely to pound out another good race but you he also tends to run wide even from good posts, which probably explains how he can run so fast and still lose 5 in a row. In 5 of his last 6 races he has been at least 3w on the first turn (all from post 6 or further inside) and all with top riders aboard. Despite the good post in this race, it is very possible that he will run wide again tomorrow, which would open the door to several live longshots that are only a point or 2 slower.

Also, note that this race is full of front runners, which is very unusual for a route stakes race on the turf in New York. This race may setup beautifully for a stalker that can save ground and pounce when they turn for home and can manage a bit of racing luck in the stretch. If Nothing To Lose gets that trip, then he likely wins, but, if he does go wide, it may open the door for several others.

So I think you can play this race one of two ways.

1) Assume that Nothing To Lose will do what he has failed to do in recent races, which is to save ground (thanks to the good post) and win the race, which means you key him on top and maybe even single him in Pick-3s and Pick-4s.

2) Assume Nothing To Lose will run wide again despite the good post and look for value in some longshots that have a good post and have shown they can save ground, stalk and pounce, which would lead you towards 2 or possibly 3 horses all that could potentially light up the tote.

Good luck.

Chris

P.S. Great Saratoga card.