The answer re that races is yes, I took off about 3 points relative to the surrounding dirt races. And it's not even a race I have marked for review-- I average maybe one of those every 2-3 track days.

As I have pointed out before, applying judgement rather than simply assuming the tracks stay the same speed is what differentiates serious figure makers from the other one. (Other than the mechanized/formulaic ones, I think Ragozin is the only one who uses an average track speed).

I would add that the example Craig used is not unusual, let alone extreme. There have been some doozies recently, that's why we have left more boxes than usual. When a track changes 5-6 points over the course of the day, and right in the middle is a maiden race where almost nobody has run more than once, anybody who gives out figures for that race is guessing. In that sense it's similar to the baby races down the hill at Keeneland.