Re: Holy Smokes!, We bet on that horse (374 Views)
Posted by:
Mall (IP Logged)
Date: September 10, 2004 10:43AM
That's my recollection as well, although I might have been against including KR if I had known that he had bad breath. Race day mouthwash is a new one on me. Speaking of getaway day pk6s, the 5 of 6 Mon at Sar didn't seem as bad given others' experience Wed at Dmr.
It's a little ironic that this discussion is taking place on the same day that Dmr's improved attendance & handle figures were released. One premise of Wagner's article seems to be that things were, or wld be, better if the stewards were back in charge & handing out suspensions. I'm skeptical because I don't remember that it was, & because a good case can be made that the stewards' complete lack of common sense & judgment is the reason the CRHB started handling things as described in the article. On the other hand, a B-H editorial about 4 mos or so ago questioned why despite numerous complaints & a criminal case the CRHB has never taken any action against a trainer who swindled 2 owners by substituting cheap horses for more expensive Euros he was paid to buy, & pocketing the difference.
I thought you might have had something to add to the informative & interesting discussion re pace, in particular methods of identifying in advance those situations where pace might play a more important role in the outcome than most sheet players believe, as I assumed you were contemplating a study along those lines when you asked for info on the winning pct of horses with the best TG figure in the last 3 races.
Two obvious problems in testing something like this are sample size & deciding on objective criteria for the plays. The latter factor, moreover, means that you end up with a mechanical system which produces plays(& winners,some no doubt at long odds) which very few handicappers would ever use in real life. Nonetheless, I recently read a study of more than 18k non mdn fast dirt races where all or all but one of the horses could be assigned a non-TG "performance figure" for the last 90 days. There were more than 10k plays where the horse with the best or 2nd best performance figure also had the best Fr1 ranking. The results were a 27.7 win pct with a .98 roi. The Bel meet which starts today has too few races to be statistically meaningful, but if those who have expressed an interest ran the same or a similar kind of test, it might be an interesting snap shot of whether mechanically including just one pace factor in sheets handicapping has a tendency to help or hurt the bottom line.
P.S. I apologize for not learning of the tri/super call until a few mins ago. I'll catch up with you later today.
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