The Haskell was run at Monmouth, but it contained horses who had been running in races around the country. As I recall (and I did it as ROTW, it's still there) the two fastest horses had earned their figures AT MTH. They ran 1-2, keying (along with Pie's Prospect) a big hit for me, and others who played the race with our figures. That those horses did not run well the next time is totally inconsequential when looking at the accuracy of those figures-- they were both coming off a pair of lifetime tops, and one broke down. They had already given strong evidence (there is never proof) that the MTH figures were right-- in the Haskell. That's why we put them on a graph.

As far as I'm concerned, Capeside Lady (and to a lesser Magical Illusion) coming out is a good thing. CL was impossible to evaluate due to the tops on a wet track (fast is probably why she came out), and those two added a bunch of hard to quantify variables that in no way made it a better betting race, and made coverage tougher. Since the edge in the race is in betting against the favorite and there are two that we like, what was the advantage in bringing in other handicapping questions?

I do not have any problem with your comments before the race, Jim. I will point out that a bad effort by CL would not have proved anything-- I pointed out in Rotw that she was tough to deal with because of the wet track tops. But since she was as fast at the weights as a favorite we did not like, we have to use her-- she pretty much becomes an automatic overlay, variables and all.

One more point-- the scratches completely change the pace/ground loss scenario, and I'm surprised there hasn't been more talk about that. We have gone from a 9 horse field with a contested pace to a 6 horse race around one turn-- who does it favor?



TGJB