Re: Derby Fav (733 Views)
Posted by:
JohnTChance (IP Logged)
Date: April 19, 2021 04:11PM
About ROCK YOUR WORLD and jockey Joel Rosario: Of course, Rosario is a great jockey and a positive asset, especially because he’s been Sadler’s go-to boy. Yet I’ve been stunned to watch Rosario get off poorly so many times recently, it’s pretty comical. On opening day at Keeneland this meet, he was slam-dunk OP/missed the break completely 4 times! It was stunning to watch. [On the other hand, we've all seen him ride speedball KNICKS GO to big wins.] Otherwise, all too often it seems, it’s as if he purposely drops back in the opening quarter so as to be behind the field, only to necessitate a 5-wide trip for his closing kick. So buyer beware. Missing the break in the Derby is toast.
It seems the winning ThoroGraph for this Derby will be a 0-ish. A 0.5? A 0.75? Unless someone can wire the field with a 1w1w trip and finish first with a 1.25, like MAXIMUM SECURITY did.
Which means that ROCK YOUR WORLD will have to improve from his Santa Anita Derby wire job. The argument FOR that scenario is the undeniable truth that since mid-March (like last year), Sadler’s horses have exploded into Oaklawn. Strong er… enhancements have occurred. When the money showed, his horses have run huge the in the past month. [In the first half of that meet, he was a bet against. But it all changed on a dime in mid-March.] Are these enhancements continuing to happen in Kentucky? Watch the skies. The argument AGAINST any Derby improvement for RYW is, well, the idea that maybe RYW’s Santa Anita Derby level is the full-toll expenditure already. And a pair-up won’t be enough. Plus, John Sadler hasn’t been a guy that historically does well with [Derby trail] 3-year olds or even shippers into Kentucky. He’s been erratic there.