Really difficult race to get conviction for.

Obviously you saw Midnight Bourbon's early trouble plus the four "wides". He was finishing well in the Derby, perhaps only Keepmeinmind was doing better late. A "3"Factors all that, but for the trouble, still can't help but think with the stalled momentum you could call it a 2 and a fraction.

The race begins with factoring which horses may keep the Bafferts honest. (My bad, that can't legitimately be done) Medina stole the Derby in more than one way. But Chad Brown has a horse with the speed to push it and if Midnight Bourbon is out clean he can be very close to it.

You never know with Baffert, but Medina looks to take the controlling position, being inside, with Concert Tour tracking just off and wide of him or just behind the top two. Like Midnight's post. To this eye, it looks rail, just behind the pace setters, perhaps with concert tour to his outside.