>My guess is about 2/3 would say no chance against good competition at that distance.<

3/4!

Seriously, it's a shame he got hurt because one of my reasons for betting against him was the distance. I couldn't see him withstanding the eventual pressure from Purge and get that distance. He wasn't running that well at Monmouth to begin with.

I would rather have seen him finish just like Purge (who I also said was suspect at the distance). That way I would know my judgment was correct. If an injury did compromise his peformance, there's not much to be learned by the result.

Notice I said "IF he got hurt".

Ever notice how every valuable horse that ever ran poorly was hurt, bled, flipped something, came back coughing etc... No one that is valuable ever actually gets beaten badly. :-)