I'm looking for betting advice since I seem to struggle with it so much.

How would you approach a race like this if you thought the only value in the race was #1 LADY NOGUEZ? M/L is at 20/1 and I think she's half that.

It's a bit of a reach for her to win, but I think she can get a piece.

The tri and super don't seem good options because they're not going to pay anything with the logical horses on the ticket.

Is the exacta the right play since it's the only thing that will pay anything decent? Exacta box?

Any advice would be appreciated.

Reason I like her is that she's moving in the right direction since Cerin took over last October. Another little forward move and she's in the mix here. Bit of a reach, but the price looks right to take a chance.