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 Race of the Week:  2021 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Del Mar 5-6 November 2021 
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Re: Even Blind Squirrels (316 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: November 04, 2021 09:58PM

RC,

Very fine question. When I wrote that I was generalizing based on what I recall as automatic handicapping angles in stakes races. I follow Lauren Stich's train of thought that Sires determine the surface and distance preferences and the mare determines the ability or so-called class. I don't like that term but let's say that certain mares certainly throw ones that run and it is a clear pattern and others don't.

So when I made my comments, I was basing my thoughts on the sire's influence as to surface and distance. That said I did not have any evidence, specifically, figure based to back it up.

A look at CZ Rocket's sheet might be enlightening as he is a City Zip from a TG perspective.

From a Beyer perspective, fwiw I don't know, his average Sprint Beyer was 48 as a sire and 54 as a route sire. He had 9200 plus starters in sprints and 2800 plus starters in routes. He had 16 percent winners in both sprints and routes with 44 percent hitting the board in sprints (WPS) and 46 hitting the board (WPS) in routes.

All that being said as to his total record as a sire . . . If I could see the list of all his dirt graded stakes progeny, I could make some more evidentiary based statements to support or deny my claim that City Zip's (for instance) did not win at route or "classic" distances on dirt at least until a trainer or two figured out how to "stretch" that pedigree to a mile and a quarter. I don't have all of that info and given I'm looking at more BC stuff, I'll leave it for another day.

I did want to respond though so you know I appreciate your point and I'll try to do better in the future with avoiding assertions.

On Friday's card, I'm high Pappacapp in the race that started this string. I haven't checked TG yet as that will be my last review tomorrow morning but have to believe he fits on there. Lots of other reasons to also support him. If you go back and watch his race two back, you have to give further thought. His last was behind a golden rail, front running Baffert horse and he was 3w, 3w. I'll play him with JC who I think will have a nice trip from the rail actually given the runners next to him several stalls out.

I hate Echo Zulu and love JuJu's Map.

Good Luck to all.



Subject Written By Posted
Even Blind Squirrels (737 Views) Tavasco 11/02/2021 04:49AM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (527 Views) Gary Irish 11/02/2021 05:24PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (402 Views) bluechip21 11/02/2021 05:54PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (407 Views) Tavasco 11/02/2021 08:17PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (393 Views) Gary Irish 11/02/2021 10:53PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (340 Views) Fairmount1 11/03/2021 08:57PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (293 Views) Tavasco 11/03/2021 09:25PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (321 Views) Fairmount1 11/03/2021 09:55PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (331 Views) Rich Curtis 11/04/2021 08:35AM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (316 Views) Fairmount1 11/04/2021 09:58PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (282 Views) Gary Irish 11/04/2021 10:10PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (249 Views) Rich Curtis 11/05/2021 12:15PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (412 Views) statuette 11/03/2021 03:37AM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (315 Views) confused 11/03/2021 05:44PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (329 Views) statuette 11/03/2021 06:11PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (221 Views) confused 11/05/2021 02:40PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (237 Views) statuette 11/05/2021 04:00PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (354 Views) shanahan 11/03/2021 07:34AM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (424 Views) drbillym 11/03/2021 06:37AM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (385 Views) Tavasco 11/03/2021 12:21PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (330 Views) drbillym 11/03/2021 03:43PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (319 Views) statuette 11/03/2021 03:49PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (165 Views) Tavasco 11/06/2021 07:57PM
Re: Even Blind Squirrels (179 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/06/2021 07:41PM


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