Re: Even Blind Squirrels (316 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1
Date: November 04, 2021 09:58PM
Very fine question. When I wrote that I was generalizing based on what I recall as automatic handicapping angles in stakes races. I follow Lauren Stich's train of thought that Sires determine the surface and distance preferences and the mare determines the ability or so-called class. I don't like that term but let's say that certain mares certainly throw ones that run and it is a clear pattern and others don't.
So when I made my comments, I was basing my thoughts on the sire's influence as to surface and distance. That said I did not have any evidence, specifically, figure based to back it up.
A look at CZ Rocket's sheet might be enlightening as he is a City Zip from a TG perspective.
From a Beyer perspective, fwiw I don't know, his average Sprint Beyer was 48 as a sire and 54 as a route sire. He had 9200 plus starters in sprints and 2800 plus starters in routes. He had 16 percent winners in both sprints and routes with 44 percent hitting the board in sprints (WPS) and 46 hitting the board (WPS) in routes.
All that being said as to his total record as a sire . . . If I could see the list of all his dirt graded stakes progeny, I could make some more evidentiary based statements to support or deny my claim that City Zip's (for instance) did not win at route or "classic" distances on dirt at least until a trainer or two figured out how to "stretch" that pedigree to a mile and a quarter. I don't have all of that info and given I'm looking at more BC stuff, I'll leave it for another day.
I did want to respond though so you know I appreciate your point and I'll try to do better in the future with avoiding assertions.
On Friday's card, I'm high Pappacapp in the race that started this string. I haven't checked TG yet as that will be my last review tomorrow morning but have to believe he fits on there. Lots of other reasons to also support him. If you go back and watch his race two back, you have to give further thought. His last was behind a golden rail, front running Baffert horse and he was 3w, 3w. I'll play him with JC who I think will have a nice trip from the rail actually given the runners next to him several stalls out.
I hate Echo Zulu and love JuJu's Map.
Good Luck to all.