I like Taiba, not worried about the derby size, all of them have to worry about 19 other horses, so it to me is a non factor since all deal with the same number of entrants, light on seasoning, but its a horse race, think he will be forwardly placed, so traffic a less concern for him, the mud is the question. Being out of Gunrunner certainly should help, looking like its going to be an off track, which should also help those that are forwardly placed, since it will string out the field more.

Also Messier looks tough, won't be anywhere close to 8-1 IMO, thinking probably second choice, maybe even favorite?