When I saw Perfect Drift so close to the pace I thought Eddie D had lost his mind. But after some reflection on PD's PP's, here's what I found:

races on Nov. 16 seven furlongs
almost wired the field with a 45and 4 half.

next start wired the field but a slow 48 and 1 half mile.

next start - 6th in a field of 7 at the half mile which he got the half in a shade over 46 flat.

Now he goes TWO TURNS in January - he was 4th in a field of 10 at the half which he ran in 47 and 2.

Next start he goes a mile and a 16th, is 6th in a field of 8 at the half mile getting the half in 47 and 1.

Next start in the Spiral he is 5th in a field of 8 at the half mile getting the half in 47 flat.

In summary, in his route races, he gets a half in 47. Pace of the Derby was 47. It figures he was on the pace.

BUT - his running style is not speed, not closer but STALKER. A speed horse needs the lead or is within a length at the pace call.
Stalkers are 3 to 5 lengths out of it and closers are 6 or more behind.

Should the pace be 46 flat in the Preakness, he will be 5 lengths out of it. If the pace is 47, he'll be within 2 lengths.
If they go 45 flat, he will be struggling to keep up and will need the race to fall apart to win.

Humbley yours,

MO