Re: The BC Flu (557 Views)
Date: October 15, 2004 10:00AM
1. Breeder's Cup fields are much deeper and talented than the typical Graded stake - even Grade I stakes. By definition, some very talented horses will finish poorly and not run back to their typical figures because of race development, race demands, and the number of contenders. This goes beyond ground loss. To expect as many horses as usual to run back to their typical figures in races like these is just plain naive. Horses are not machines and everything isn't part of some neat formula.
2. Frankel is one of the best trainers in the world at spotting his horses properly. When you go to the BC, you aren't finding the softest and best spot for your horse. That means that your stats will automatically decline because you are giving up one of your biggest edges.
3. Sample sizes of the type we are talking about are often meaningless. It should be expected that some "great" trainers will have have "poor" BC records and some "average" ones will have "great" records.
I am not making any claims one way or the other about Frankel being a juicer, but the above is a list of things that should be considered.
Post Edited (10-15-04 10:36)