As you try to solve the puzzles on Ark Derby Day, you will see Baffert has two entered.

Race 5. MSW 120k for 3yo fillies. Bonaqua owned by Natalie Baffert.
Race 12. Ark Derby. Muth.

How does he fare at Oaklawn?

Last 5 years: 28 starts, 14 wins. 71% ITM.

2019: 1-0-1-0 (NOTE: Any stats for Jan 1 to March 30 not included for 2019)
2020: 15-9-1-0. Includes Inshannity a MSW winner owned by Natalie Baffert.
2021: 6-2-2-1
2022: 3-1-2-0
2023: 2-2-0-0
2024: 1-0-0-0. Ran 11th at 6-1 in the Southwest with Wynstock.

Of those Oaklawn starters the last 5 years, when favored he is 11 of 17.

A little more interesting is this:

13 of those 14 winners that last 5 years were UNDER 2.00-1.
The 14th winner was 2.30-1.

The 8 horses he has run that were 5-2 or higher, ZERO wins. 4 seconds. AGAIN, ZERO WINS AT 5-2 or higher.

_______________________________

In a post after Sar, I pointed out how strange it was he scratched Muth because of the distance of the race after Muth shipped up there. It was fairly close to the start of the card and he commented the distance was the reason.

That made me wonder how much he has shipped out of California in the past several months since around that time. I looked at 8 months back. That is a bit arbitrary but goes back to just past this Muth scratch.

Outside of California the past 240 days. 13-2-0-2. National Treasure winning the Pegasus and Tall Paul winning at Sar in a State bred MSW race are the 2 winners. 15.3% winners and 31% ITM. His 13 out of Cali starters account for just 5.7% of his starters during this time.

Outside of California from 241 days ago to 1825 days ago (8 months plus to 5 years ago). 156 starts, 42 wins. 27% winners, 55% ITM. (I didn't count out the exact places and shows on this stat but I did have the 55% number). His 156 out of Cali starters accounted for 11.1% of his starters.

These numbers are not 1000% perfect but they are pretty close. I had some trouble with the program matching up the 2 diff time periods but they are really, really close within a start or two. The amount of winners is dead on. And the outside Cali includes ones he shipped to Dubai and Saudi. But just to be clear, no warranties for someone that finds a small discrepancy, :)

In summary, the last 8 months, he hasn't shipped as many horses percentage wise out of Cali as he was previously. And the ones he has in a small sample are not winning as often. And at Oaklawn, his horses are hammered when they are live but he has only shipped one this meet and that horse ran Last.

Good Luck as Fla Derby and Ark Derby Days approach! Good discussion about La Derby last week and would enjoy seeing some positive banter again this week.