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 Race of the Week:  2023 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Santa Anita 3-4 November 2023  • 1 Specials Available
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Santa Anita Derby Day (546 Views)
Posted by: P-Dub (IP Logged)
Date: April 06, 2024 01:20AM

Making the approx 1hr 45min drive out to Santa Anita for one of the few days worth going to. I have a nice 6 seat box in the clubhouse.

Race 1-2 have lots of FTS, so I'll pass.

Race 3: 6F Turf (4+ F&M AOC)

#3 Big Summer 5/2 gets LSX and has 3 sprints last year more than good enough to win

#7 Alternate Rock 12/1 is a 4YO that ran a nice turf sprint top as a 3YO, got back to that in her 2nd start this year, then backed up going 2 turns last out. She's back sprinting, at least as good as anything in here, can at least run back to that top and if she inches forward will be a handful.

#9 Rugelach 3/1 who ran ok as a 3YO but her first TY as a 4YO was nothing special on numbers.

At anything close to the ML 12/1 #7 Alternate Rock is a win bet, using with 3,9,2.

Race 4: 6.5 Dirt (3YO Fillies Evening Jewel Stakes)

Which #2 Mirinda 8/5 do we get today?? Her debut was really good, her last not so much. Breaking from the 2 hole she seems like a filly that likes the lead and will have company up front from most likely #4 Grease Missile 3/1 and #6 Clubhouse Bride 5/1

#3 Roberta's Love 6/1 doesn't have a number last race, but my numbers have it as very good.

Will that set it up for #1 Safa 6/1?? She clearly likes to come from off the pace, should have some pace to run at, and goes turf/dirt and route/sprint. She's proven over this track, and if she goes forward is the clear value at anything close to her 6/1 ML. Her numbers and pattern aren't bad at all.

#1 Safa and #3 Roberta's Love are my keys with the 2,4.

Race 5: 1M Turf (MSW)
This race is wide open

#3 Kathynmarissa 4/1 ran a really nice number in her last going 2 turns on turf, much better than her dirt efforts.

#5 Tahini 4/1 ran 2 fast dirt sprints, followed by a very solid turf route. Her last she had a tough start and faded on the lead going longer. Don't love the price on this one either.

#6 Loterie 5/2 has a great pattern, running 2 solid 2YO races, gets LSX for her 3YO debut. Again while an obvious contender I don't love the price

#7 Blue Fashion 20/1 ran a decent one Opening Day when she started slow and ran on late. Next she goes 9F, was slow and bumped out of the gate, made a decent move mid race and flattened out. Back at a mile on the turf, she settles mid pack, cuts the corner and is full of run. She tries to go inside of Kathynmarissa and gets cut off. She makes another run late and again checks. She was never going to win after the first trouble, but she still tried.

She worked 10 days after her last dirt route, a race I'm tossing and perhaps was just a paid workout. The number didn't come back bad at all either. Works 5 days after that, then 6 days after that. Easy 4F each time. She's fit and ready IMO. She's about a point slower than the faster ones, but if she can break cleanly and get any type of trip, she can make some noise at a price. In a wide open race why not??

#8 Runaway Kitten 12/1 gets blinkers after being eased 2 turns on the main. Her 2 turf sprints weren't bad at all, especially her debut when she had trouble.

#10 Poppy's Joy 6/1 ran a very nice race going 2 turns on the turf after her debut debacle, ran another solid one going 9F. Shortens back up to 8F, has a very steady worktab, and is a definite contender

#11 Strike When Ready 10/1 drawn outside, a lone race across the pond, gets LSX and the great Mike Smith who will no doubt save ground even from the 11 hole. Have to include

Keying the #7 and perhaps the #10 also. Win ticket on the #7. Of course a shorter price can win, but I'm taking a shot here in a race I think is wide open.

Race 6: 1 1/16 Dirt (Santa Anita Oaks)

#2 Kinza 4/5 is obvious
#3 Kopion 9/5 is right there with her
#5 Corposo 4/1 ran a nice number in her first roite, and its pretty close to the other 2 fillies.

Will play horizontals using some of these

Race 7: 1M Turf (AOC)

#5 Mrs Astor 6/1 some solid 2YO races and gets LSX for her 3YO debut. Contender

#6 Kleen Karma 20/1 ran an isolated fast one at DMR last summer, Her other ones aren't as fast but I'll play her underneath

#8 Pastiche 8/1 comes here from England, gets LSX, solid Euro numbers. Useable
#9 Royal Charter 5/1 see above. Useable

#10 Irish Patsy 6/1 ran 2 very solid turf routes last year, both 3YO routes a few points slower. Would like to see one of them pair, but she's still plenty good enough. Contender

#11 Sunshine Babe 20/1 last year ran several fast enough to contend in here. Kent gets back on and he's had success with her in the past. Must use at a price

I think the 6 and 11 are must uses at least underneath. Another wide open race. I'll take a shot with #10 Irish Patsy for the win and use the others with her........and maybe a smaller bet on the #11 to win.

Race 8: 6F Dirt (AOC)

#7 Left Hand Man 5/1 doesn't always get a clean break, ran a fast debut at this dist/surf on this track. Next out a poor start in the Echo Eddie, he ran ok. Then a turf sprint with another poor start, he ran on decently but backed up again on the TG. First start as a 4YO back sprinting on the main and he pairs his top with a better break. Draws outside perhaps he breaks better, He fits on TG and is a solid contender.

#6 So I'm Told 5/1 ran very competitve numbers here last summer.

#5 Tizz A Good Thing 4/1 lightly raced, ran a solid number as a 2YO and makes his first start as a 3YO. Can improve and contend.

#3 California Tiger 5/2 has the fastest numbers and must include.

#7 Left Hand Man for the minor upset using the others.

Race 9: 6.5F Turf (Monrovia Stakes)

#1 Graceland Gray 3/1 is fast enough and due for a good one
#4 Chismosa 5/1 a nice forging pattern, is fast enough, obvious contender
#6 AG Bullet 9/5 is an awful favorite unless she improves several points 2nd start 4YO
#7 Lucky Girl 8/1 has a number fast enough to contend

#4 Chismosa is my win bet

Race 10: Santa Anita Derby

#2 Tapalo is several points slower than the fast ones, but he has a very nice pattern. He can absolutely jump forward several points here. Paired his 2YO top and then did it again. Has speed but can stalk and will have to with an abundance of speed in here. Contender

#3 Stronghold 5/2 with a great pattern and is fast.
#4 Imagination 8/5 same thing
#7 McVay 5/1 ran a good one 2 back.

The 2 favorites are tough, and with a pattern I like I'll add the #2 in horizontals.

Race 11: 8F Turf (AOC)

#3 Sydney Street 8/1 has ran big 2 back, then a vet scratch, followed by a decent one. His good ones are plenty good enough

#4 Stamp My Passport 8/1 just paired a solid number

#6 Ottoman Prince 5/1 gets LSX for his 2nd stateside start, ran a nice sprint fig last time that fits

#7 Man Among Men 3/1 the ML fav ran a good sprint off a long layoff. Absolutely cannot trust this guy.

#8 Aligato 5/1 has run several fast numbers, and is a definite contender. Cuts back to a mile which has seen him run his better numbers

#3 and #8 are my main win contenders, will key them and the board may decide which one I bet.

Race 12: 6.5 Dirt (Echo Eddie)

#3 Shady Tiger 3/1 ran a good one 2 back, backed up a couple points on turf. Contender

#4 Known Idea 8/1 has paired figs, a point slower than ST but can move forward off that pair and contend. Speedy sort will gun to the lead and will be outside of the other speed horse #2.

#9 Uncle Chilly 15/1 similar to #4 and twice the price. Contender

#10 Tom Seaver 5/2 ran a good one down the hill, but he's not 5/2 better than these. Underlay

#11 Refocus 10/1 is a little slower, but can be used underneath

#4 Known Idea is my win bet

P-Dub



Subject Written By Posted
Santa Anita Derby Day (546 Views) P-Dub 04/06/2024 01:20AM
Re: Santa Anita Derby Day (288 Views) P-Dub 04/06/2024 04:41PM
Re: Santa Anita Derby Day (258 Views) Roman 04/06/2024 05:40PM
Re: Santa Anita Derby Day (265 Views) Tavasco 04/06/2024 05:51PM
Re: Santa Anita Derby Day (263 Views) Roman 04/06/2024 06:09PM
Re: Santa Anita Derby Day (272 Views) P-Dub 04/06/2024 06:22PM
Re: Santa Anita Derby Day (194 Views) marty22 04/07/2024 05:35PM
Re: Santa Anita Derby Day (268 Views) Ace 04/07/2024 01:00AM
Re: Santa Anita Derby Day (209 Views) jbelfior 04/07/2024 10:14AM
Re: Santa Anita Derby Day (199 Views) P-Dub 04/07/2024 02:21PM


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