Having listened to the seminar (which is great every year), one aspect which I look for is the improvement from 2YO to 3YO. There is one horse which I would typically discount, but I am trying to ensure I don't have a blind-spot. The question is about the expected improvement in their 3YO top.

Without sharing proprietary numbers, looking at Epic Ride, his second start was on Jan 5th. Presumedly if he had run 6 days prior it would be classified as a 2YO race.

If that was a 2YO race...he would have only a 3 point new top as a 3YO, and maybe some more room for improvement. He just made a 4 point jump to a new top, which makes him amongst the top third speed figures in the race. Bounce risk sure, but certainly faster than many that will have significantly lower odds!

He scratched in and will have a terrible post, but I am just trying to keep myself from quickly dismissing him. At 62-1 is he a bomb that can inflate the exotics, or am I trying to be too creative?