All IMHO:

I estimate the chances that St Liam ran one of the fastest races in history at approximately zero percent.

If you build the probable impact of pace into the figures, you would realize that other than GZ and SL, the horses that finished well beaten, actually ran similar overall performances to expectations even though they were slow.

The pace was too fast for most of that field, but not too fast for GZ and SL who are superior to the others. The others were used up chasing it.

Second, I believe the middle of the track was playing very well that day.

IMHO, these are things that makes a small contribution to your expanding figures.

Without the impact of pace/bias incorporated into the analysis, your assumption has to be that the others couldn't possibly be that slow. Therefore, GZ and SL must be incredibly fast.

The reality is that the others ran slower than expected because they were used up chasing that pace and GZ and SL ran very solid but not spectacular races.



Post Edited (10-28-04 15:44)