JB,

Can't you rationalize the races on BC day without the "juice" angle?

Ashado ran a nice race, got a perfect trip from Johnny V., and ran down a pretty mediocre field. No "juice" necessary.

Speightstown (in hindsight), may not have taken to the "cuppy" track in his last or was not "wound tight" by Pletcher, knowing the BC was the next race. He got another "saving ground" trip and may not have run his top either, despite winning. The fact that Matt and Bwana were 3rd/4th makes me think that the race may have fallen apart.

Ghostzapper was the best horse going in, on your figures and alson on Beyers and Ragozin. He got a softer lead than expected and ran to his numbers (or regressed and still won - you tell me)

The other Frankel's certainly didn't run well. The two F&M turfs weren't fast going in and didn't run fast. Midas Eyes and Cajun Beat didn' run big either. I saw your post about doing quick figures on each horse and with ground loss you thought they ran "ok". I don't know if your official figure will show it, but if you come up with a negative 3.5 for Midas Eyes in that race, it would be a shock.

So, one of Frankel's horses ran to his figures and two of Pletcher's got great rides in mediocre fields.

It is "believable" to me, without any other explanation.

You don't buy it?