Well, it's about that time of year again....time to pull out the records and see what needs improving.

One of the struggles in my game has always been the type of horses that demand my largest wagers, the prime bet so to speak. I am talking about the horses that we stay up all night thinking about in anticpiation of their performance. The constant tug of war between placing my largest wagers on low priced overlays (horses at 1-1 on my line going off at least 9/5 or 2-1) and longer priced overlays usually consisting of subtle but powerful positive condition lines, drives me insane sometimes. I never venture large bets on horses with negative lines, but sometimes I see horses with a huge advantage in numbers and no real negative knocks in terms of condition (see Ghostzapper). In the past, I used to make horses like these my largest, prime bet wagers, provided they met my odds requirement. I feel now that I am a solid condition handicapper, and I feel I might be underbetting some of these longer priced "condition" horses because they are lower percentage bets (despite long term profits) and streaks last so long and can cripple a bankroll.

I guess admist all this rambling is the search for some advice. I have been doing this for a while with success, but only have been seriously dedicated to condition handicapping for a few years. I was interested if maybe Jerry or some other successful bettors could chime in with some of their styles and preferences. Do you focus your largest wagers on low priced overlays or longer priced condition horses? It seems to fly in the face of the traditional approach to making an odds line. If I make a horse 4-5 based on a huge number advantage and no negative pattern, and that horse goes off 2-1 ....would you say that's a better spot for a large wager than a positive condition horse you made 3-1 or 4-1 and going off at 10-1???

All advice is appreciated in advance and I must take this time to wish everyone a safe and happy holidays....and hopefully a prosperous new year!!!

-Bull