Hawthorne Derby (1572 Views)
Posted by:
Rick B. (IP Logged)
Date: October 16, 2015 02:57PM
Borrowing the ROTW style for analysis of a neat little race on what should be crisp and beautiful Fall day in Chicago:
[b]Wireless Future[/b] (8-1) fired big to get back to lifetime top after 4+ months off. Short rest is a concern but this one has early speed and the rail on what will be a firm and fast turf course; might forget to stop. Trainer switch from Amoss to C. Richard is not a concern. Live at a price.
[b]Mission Drives[/b] (10-1) is a healthy horse that can run the same numbers over and again, with decent spacing...but hasn't improved one inch in months, and no reason to expect different now. Minors only.
[b]Nun the Less[/b] (12-1) bounced miserably as the slight favorite in a stake at Canterbury, but returns to Chicago for home cooking under top notch Chicago trainer Chris Block. Has already run as fast as the fastest ones in here. Expecting huge effort from this contender and today's Live Longshot.
[b]Lucky Lindy[/b] (15-1) has shown slight improvement with each race this year, and is a tricky read: how much juice is left in the lemon? Trainer Mark Frostad shows a solid Thoro-Pattern with 67% pairs or tops. Canadian horses have done well in Chicago grass stakes over the last ten years. Solid contender on best.
It's peculiar for Bill Mott to ship an obvious 3rd-stringer such as [b]Net Gain[/b] (15-1). I keep checking back to see what I am not seeing in this horse. Can't find it. Toss.
Maker trainee [b]Granny's Kitten[/b] (8-1) just got back to lifetime top and is a touch slow. ITM shot on best.
[b]Syntax[/b] (8-1) is another puzzling shipper from Bill Mott that hasn't improved since his late winter 3YO debut at Gulfstream. Another toss...sure feels like I'm asking for trouble throwing out both Mott trainees.
Three of [b]Saham[/b]'s (4-1) last 4 races are good enough to win this and he will be the post-time favorite, but definitely vulnerable here. Nonetheless he is a must use as there are no real knocks against him.
[b]Nucifera[/b] (9-2) was pretty ordinary in lone U.S. try. Another tricky read that is hard to use, and hard to toss. The long gaps are NOT a good sign -- this one might have ouchie feet.
[b]Belemor[/b] (30-1) is a maiden but is stakes-placed on Poly and just might relish today's added distance. Could clunk up for a piece; remember the words of Barry Meadow: "...even Living Filth can stumble home for 3rd".
[b]One Go All Go[/b] (6-1) has a tight pattern after a long layoff. Has won both tries at age 3 -- is he another one of these "just runs fast enough to win" types? Bad post for his running style, though, and I don't think he sees the wood all day. Slightly nervous about throwing him out.
[b]Chip Leader[/b] (20-1) is the "X Factor" horse here; if that last number is accurate, look out because trainer Louie Roussel often gets repeat efforts, and this one is lightly raced with the look of a late developer.
[b]Flashy Jewel[/b] (30-1) is also eligible and if he gets in, is thought to only be a rabbit for stablemate Nun the Less. Non-contender.
[u][center][b]SUMMARY[/b][/center][/u]
Hard to pin down a single win bet here so I'll just go with the longest of Wireless Future, Nun the Less, Lucky Lindy and Chip Leader for the win, then box those 4 in the exacta.
Then, key Saham 1st and 2nd in the trifecta with the above 4, and others in the 2nd and 3rd spots as needed (thank God for 50 cent tris). Don't forget Belemor!
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