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Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (384 Views)
Posted by: P.Eckhart (IP Logged)
Date: January 23, 2005 03:18AM

The following is an excerpt from a piece written by Ed Bain on his time at the DRF Expo.

---------
We broke for lunch and during that time I had an interesting conversation with
one of the owners of United Tote regarding the really big bettors in racing that
were betting millions. He stated that there are only eight players or consortiums
betting on racing in the world and almost all were individuals who headed a group.
I said there is this impression that there are thousands of big players betting
millions each day. He laughed and said no believe me I know them all, there are
only eight because he has tried to recruit them to bet through United Totes host
tracks, but with out much success. He stated this was because they can’t offer the
rebates that an off shore rebate shop can. We talked about how these consortiums
bet by using computer programs hooked into the tote systems and the advantages
they have. He stated that these groups of bettors could not beat the take, without
the rebate, they would lose money. I shook my head, and said it would seem to me you
would have to show a positive Return On Investment before you could bet millions
through a rebate shop. He stated no, they have found a way to beat the system by
betting millions each month by enticing off shore rebate shops to take their bets
and use their influence and computers, which were hooked directly to the betting pools.
He stated “they also have another advantage other than exploiting betting pools with
their computer programs. They have about a ¼ of a mile run before the tote companies
betting windows close”. I said “A ¼ of a mile?” He nodded “Yes.” I said, “Now that
is a true advantage. Because if you have a computer program that can identify lone speed
and let you have a ¼ mile to decide to place a bet, I would label that cheating. That’s
an unfair advantage that we as every day players don’t have. If I was a speed player
betting lone speed, I only have to get a hit rate percentage on my ability to find lone
speed, then I would bet millions.” Our conversation went from that to how they bet
finding betting pools that were undervalued, and to make money they had to have the
rebate because without it they weren’t good enough to make a living betting on the horses.
------------------------

I'd like to say a few things about it.

1. The United Tote rep is being remarkably frank here. This surprised me in view of what he is saying openly.

2. That there are only a handful of huge groups makes perfect sense. Moreover, I would say these groups do not compete with each other else cannibalisation would certainly take place. In that sense there must be some sort of agreed carve up of the tracks between these groups.

3. That they are getting "1/4 of a mile" again makes perfect sense. Not in the way Ed describes it as being a tactical form advantage ie lone speed etc (although it could be used as that too), but primarily
as a mathematical advantage. A key component of extracting the economic inefficiency out of a pool is knowing the final race handle. This is what giving them 1/4 mile is all about. Knowing the exact handle enables them to calculate the optimum amount they can inject into the pool to maximise return on capital outlay.

4. This relates to the last sentence. The only (endemic) economic inefficiency that I am aware of that existed in racetrack betting markets is the fav-longshot bias. In very simplictic terms, that favs are underbet and longshots overbet. Somewhat counter-intuitive but that is why it lay dormant for so long though it has been known for a long time now, just maybe not exploited for practical reasons which computers, networking and (particularly) rebates solve. The fact that some people say the bias is now gone is maybe testament to these groups ability.

If I am right, or even if I am wrong the Tote rep's words still surprise me. He is clearly not scared of a court case. This implies it is all legal. In that case, your betting system is legally corrupt if they are shutting shop then giving 25 secs more to these groups.




Subject Written By Posted
Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (655 Views) Saddlecloth 01/21/2005 11:56PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (451 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 01/22/2005 01:15AM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (447 Views) Saddlecloth 01/22/2005 11:28AM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (397 Views) TGJB 01/22/2005 12:37PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (372 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 01/22/2005 01:21PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (445 Views) TGJB 01/22/2005 01:40PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (424 Views) MO 01/23/2005 09:09AM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (395 Views) 01/23/2005 09:32AM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (426 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 01/23/2005 02:34PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (453 Views) Michael D. 01/22/2005 09:20PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (384 Views) P.Eckhart 01/23/2005 03:18AM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (422 Views) cubfan0316 01/23/2005 07:30AM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (370 Views) marcus 01/23/2005 07:14PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (400 Views) xichibanx 01/22/2005 07:45PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (405 Views) SoCalMan2 01/22/2005 04:47AM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (448 Views) SJU5 01/22/2005 09:37AM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (434 Views) 01/22/2005 06:55PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (437 Views) TGJB 01/22/2005 08:24PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (388 Views) razzle 01/23/2005 06:29PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor and Editor Letter (444 Views) Silver Charm 01/23/2005 09:33PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor and Editor Letter (396 Views) ezgoer89 01/24/2005 02:04PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor and Editor Letter (449 Views) TGJB 01/24/2005 02:47PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor and Editor Letter (495 Views) Bull 01/24/2005 03:52PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor and Editor Letter (406 Views) JohnTChance 01/24/2005 06:26PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor and Editor Letter (399 Views) TGJB 01/24/2005 06:55PM
Re: Nice Letter to Editor TGJB (418 Views) Saddlecloth 01/24/2005 04:57PM


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