Re: D.Wayne, Handicapper (381 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: February 08, 2005 07:23PM
Mall, I'm not sure I found the story, but I think the below link may be it. Commendable was the WORST horse in my HISTORY of handicapping the Triple Crown to win such a race. Bar NONE. I seem to recall he won once before and NEVER won again. He didn't run a 1:38 mile. He ran a 1:40 mile is my recollection. He finished in 2:31. The only slower time was Thunder Gulch's 2:32 in a year where all he had to beat was "Star Standard". You have to go back to 1944 to find slower races.
Commendable's track was a big, big sandy and the competition was essentially Aptitude, a Nafzger horse I can't remember and Impeachment. Did Red Bullet make that field? I can't recall. Commendable got the lead again, (Surprise, surprise another Lukas shocker), and the closers could not pick him up on that surface and those soft fractions. You can call Lukas a genius on that if you wish. I'm just gonna call him Lukas. He ran Charismatic the same way in the '99 Belmont. Come to think of it, he ran Golden Missile and Distinctive Speech that same way Saturday. I guess he couldn't read "Love of mom's" past performances...brilliant. He always enters regardless. After that race I flatly stated Commendable would never win again. He didn't show ANYTHING but an ability to go a little bit more than a two minute lick on the beach above the watermark without company.
Now your telling us that Lukas exhibited acumen by analyzing the race from the perspective of what the other horses would do? I could be missing something, but isn’t' that what trainers should always do? Isn't that why Tgraph gives advice upon placement? If you're saying Lukas was using a self-aggrandizing way of saying, "we stole that one", I wholeheartedly concur. But he is a shameless self-promoter. It’s why he's not a horseman. Still he deserves credit for winning a tomato can Belmont with a tomato can horse at 16-1 before Aptitude found the elixir. Ask Mr. genius how much he had riding on the horse.
Lukas said:
"I never bought into that hype," (Re: FuPig) "I saw a talented horse who won the Derby by a length and a quarter with a perfect trip and a great ride, but I didn't see an invincible horse like a Spectacular Bid or a Secretariat. As this crop of 3-year-olds go at one another we're going to swap wins. (Wanna Bet Wayne?)
(I could be wrong, but isn't this just more Lukas B.S.? FuPeg wasn't even in that Belmont, how could he be "scared away".)
Sure, I'm admittedly and unabashedly anti-Lukas. I despise him for a number of reasons. Foremost among them that he is the most over rated "conditioner" in the history of the game. That doesn't mean I haven't respected his ability to get a good horse out of the hordes made available to him. I will grant if he's found the new potion to mix with his old formula he could be a factor this year. Even so I predict his horses won't last but the season.
By the way, Commendable is in South Korea now. Why not?...he was never a horse here either.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=horse&search_bar=horse&h=COMMENDABLE&g=5&inbred=Standard&x2=n&pedloggedin=0
http://www.bloodhorse.com/tcm/features/belmont_trainer0612.html
p.s. you didn't talk to woody enough
CtC
Post Edited (02-08-05 19:32)