I don't have any preconceived notions of where this is leading, but just as a academic excercise lets see where it goes.

Fairgrounds February 12, 2005

3yoMSW-----21.58, 45.20, 57.52, 1:10.64
4^NW2L------22.24, 45.82, 57.74, 1:10.29
3YOMSW----22.26, 46.11, 58.53, 1:05.29
3YOf150K---23.77, 47.56, 1:12.60, 1:37.22, 1:43.79
4^100K-----23.29, 46.22, 1:10.94, 1:36.35, 1:43.08
3YO150K---23.50, 46.75, 1:11.61, 1:37.82, 1:44.54

I think a fast track is indicated. Those first two sure look to be fast track times, so maybe a 1:43 wasn't the greatest accomplishment. Its interesting to note that "Summerly" came home in an extrapolated 26:28. I think that was good considering.

"Wandering Boy" came home in 26.92, which also isn't horrible considering.

Lastly "Scipion" came home in roughly 22:68. I'm not factoring the wide on the turn. Assuming that fraction is in the ballpark he would of inhaled the fillies within another sixteenth and the older horses within another eighth.

Obviously, extrapolating on a sixteenth isn't extremely precise and closers are always at risk for being impeded, but I think this horse just threw down the gauntlet. You dont always have to run the Derby up front.

My math may be off, I'll go over his more carefully before the next race.

CtC



Post Edited (02-13-05 15:43)