Well,

War Emblem is definitely looking more like War Admiral, Count Fleet, Swaps, or Seattle Slew than like Hoop Jr, Jet Pilot, Dark Star or Kauai King (see copy of previous, 5/7 post below). Notice that there are several TC winners on the list of good wire-to-wire Derby winners. Will we be adding another name to that list this year????

On a related topic:

Here is a list of the last 5 horses to win the first 2 legs of the TC and how they fared in the Belmont.

1987, Alysheba ran 4th to Bet Twice
1989, Sunday Silence ran second to Easy Goer
1997, Silver Charm ran second to Touch Gold
1998, Real Quiet ran second to Victory Gallop
1999, Charismatic ran third to Lemon Drop Kid

Do you notice any trend other than the fact that all of them lost in the Belmont?

Here is a hint - look at the horses that won the Belmont in those years. See a common thread in most of them?

That's right - Bet Twice, Easy Goer and Victory Gallop all finished 2nd in both the Derby and the Preakness and then turned the tables in the Belmont.

Now technically speaking, Proud Citizen ran 3rd in the Preakness but he probably ran the best or second-best figure in the race (brilliant post position pick Wayne). Could we end up seeing a horse named "Proud Citizen" win New York's biggest race in its first running post 9/11?????

Too much karma for me...

Chris

*****

Previous message:
Some very good horses...have won the Kentucky Derby virtually wire-to-wire including:

Winning Colors
Spend A Buck
Seattle Slew
Bold Forbes
Riva Ridge
Swaps
Count Fleet
War Admiral

Some not-as-good horses have also turned the trick:

Kauai King
Dark Star
Jet Pilot
Hoop Jr
Johnstown


Is War Emblem another War Admiral, Count Fleet, Swaps, or Seattle Slew?

Or

Is he another Hoop Jr, Jet Pilot, Dark Star or Kauai King?

I know it is tempting to immediately conclude that War Emblem is a play against in the Preakness by arguing that he has had everything in his favor in his last 3 big efforts and that those efforts are bound to take their toll. That may be true, but keep the following points in mind.

- He has finished up the final 1/4 in his last 2 races very impressively.

- He is not your typical early-developing speed-ball that tries to stretch out to the Derby distance. He has never raced in a sprint. He had an ideal late 2yo top figure of 8 earned in a route (fast but not too fast). He has even won after being 5th of 6 at the first call in a previous route race.

- He has already beaten all the top 3yos.

- He was just recently taken into the barn of one of the most successful Triple Crown trainers of all time. Baffert has been dominant since he entered the Derby scene in 1996 and both his previous Derby winners went on to win the Preakness (as did Point Given last year).

- Baffert is not stupid and is unlikely to have War Emblem get caught up in a speed duel in the Preakness. This horse has shown the ability to rate and even the ability to sit behind horses and still finish strong. Don't automatically assume that War Emblem will be sent to the lead to duel with Booklet and possibly others including Medaglio D'Oro.

- War Emblem may even offer decent value in the Preakness. It is not unusual to see a longshot Derby winner that was viewed as having a very favorable trip go off as the 3rd or 4th choice in the Preakness. In such cases, a "rough trip" Derby also ran (e.g., Medaglio D'Oro) often becomes the hot favorite and there is usually a fresh newcomer that also draws heavy support (e.g., Sunday Break).

Chris