miff,

I suspect you are right. However.....

There have been consistent suspicious form reversals "off the claim and off private purchases" for as long as I have been handicapping.

When I was a hotwalker back in the 70s, there were trainers that hit the top of the trainers list and then went deader than dead for fairly extended periods of time (and vice versa) that I am almost certain were clean. I was in the same shed row working at the time and saw some of the legit things that can turn a barn up or down - including health of trainer, health of horses, quality of stock, good or bad training luck, pointing for specific meets etc...

I think without actually testing and catching the crooks, it's a bad idea to use names just because you are suspicious of a trainer's record and results.

I'm not sure why handicappers are reacting any more now than they were 25 years ago. The same crap was going on back then and "form" handicappers like myself were struggling with those crazy wakeups and improvements back then. I know I was.

If it's just that some people are finally sick and tired of it and are willing to get aggressive to change things then I think that's great. I applaud Jerry and the people at the DRF and elsewhere.

However, from a handicapping perspective the solution is very easy. You have to do 1 of 2 things.

1. You make studying the records of trainers your passion so you understand their strengths, weaknesses, moves, etc... and can get on the horses when there's value and discover the latest supertrainers before the public does. Focus on mastering the types of races that these guys do most of their winning in.

2. You can avoid the types of races where they are generally very active and focus your attention elsewhere. When they show up, you can either avoid that specific race or accumulate a handful of insights that will enable you to play with confidence despite their presence.

I fall into category 2, but I have friends that specialize in category 1.



Post Edited (02-18-05 08:42)