TGJB,

I never claimed that I think the industry is drug free. I haven't disagreed with any of your specific opinions on who might be using drugs. I don't know.

I know you are sharp enough to distinguish between the typical form cycle of an older seasoned horse and one of a younger or lightly raced older horse. I also know you are sharp enough to know that not all trainers and vets are of equal competence even when they are totally honest.

I just strongly disagree with the general consensus on this board about the extent of the problem. Not every trainer that moves horses up as soon as they get into his barn or develops them as they mature is using chemical warfare. Competency of connections and trainer style must be considered.

I would also have to go further in saying that I am not in total agreement with some figures that have been given out in the past that give the appearance of rapidly improving ability because I believe that it's possible there's an upward bias in interpretation related to pace, beaten lengths on off tracks and a few other things. That becomes more of a consideration when other competent people have different figures.

Obviously, that doesn't mean I am right about any of this. It's just my view.

I find it comical that there's been a lot of discussion about certain trainers/races almost exclusively in terms of whether "so and so" had juice but doesn't have it now, who might have new juice etc...

IMO, if you get that paranoid you'll never interpret results or probabilities correctly. I can't see how you win.

If someone is moving up illogical horses, then bet them if the odds don't reflect that possibilty. What could be easier than that?

I may be the only handicapper in the world that believes this, but I don't think it impacts my results. It's just another factor to me. I know some people that IMO couldn't make a dime handicapping if the game was cleaner because their specialty is identifying the move up trainers and their patterns early.

IMO, the issue of cleaning up the game should be more troubling to the honest trainers, vets, and owners etc... because they are at a disadvantage that I really can't see a way of overcoming. I'd rather see a cleaner game and I appreciate the efforts of those who are trying.

It would just be better if the accusations were limited to the type of clear cut situations that can't be explained away easily and not every horse that moves up based on a subjective figure that other competent people disagree with.



Post Edited (02-17-05 15:09)