I doubt you made a mistake by passing this race. Just because Mass Media didn't win doesn't mean he wasn't the deserving favorite. Unless you had a very strong reason to think he wasn't going to run well and was very overbet, you are going to have a very difficult time winning money over the long haul betting against legitimate clear favorites like this. Horses like this tend to outperform the take (while still being unprofitable) which makes it a monumentally difficult task to find value elsewhere. If there was any value in the race, IMO it was probably by leaving Choctaw Nation out of the belly of the exacta.