Not much to talk about.

St. Liam has the fastest figures. He's been earning them against the stiffest competition and in a few highly competitive pace contests (Oaklawn, Woodward, Donn). He's the deserving favorite and will be bet that way. Unless you think he can't get 10F under competitive conditions on the pace from the outside post he's tough to bet on or against.

IMO, RHT improved somewhat in the Strub relative to the Malibu just as I expected. I still don't understand what all the fuss is about this horse. I haven't read a single article or heard a single person say this horse has done anything special yet, but people like to trash him as if he's overrated.

How can you be overrated if everyone on earth thinks you aren't that good yet?

At most, people have said he has potential because he’s lightly raced.

He was a deserving favorite against 2 weak fields so far this year and delivered enough to get the job done both times. As a lightly raced just turned 4YO that ran fast enough VERY early in his 3YO career to contend against some of the best 3YOs, it remains possible that he has some more improvement left 3rd off a layoff. His only 2 poor efforts were at 12 furlongs when dueling with SJ (a suicidal trip) and a dreadfully sub par performance at Monmouth where something OBVIOUSLY went wrong because he was freshened right after that. Given the way he backed up so early at 12 furlongs, it is possible 10F won't be his best distance. He will have to finally fulfill his early promise to have any chance against St. Liam. It's going to require a sharp move forward.

IMO, Imperialism also improved in the Strub as I thought was possible. Given his deep closing style, he benefitted from the very fast pace of the Strub and just missed. He's also a just turned 4YO, but I think he is slightly less likely to improve that RHT because he's done a lot more racing already. His deep closer style is generally a disadvantage, but he's likely to get a decent pace to run at again. He's obviously not that far off RHT but may be more neglected on the board.

Congrats also showed some decent ability at 3 but his fastest race was against weaker. He has run fairly well for Mandella so far. I think he is slightly less likely to improve than a horse like RHT who is much more lightly raced. On the plus side, he has a great style for this race and could get a perfect trip. He supposedly also recently outworked RHT!!! Just keep in mind the older CA horses are a pretty bad bunch and St Liam is not.

Lundy's Liability is also not far off the second tier horses. He has the rail, could get a good trip, and was almost certainly prepped to peak here. Not only that, but despite the fact that he is 5, he is also lightly raced. So we may not have seen his best yet.

Truly a Judge is also similar in ability to the other 2nd tier horses. Unfortunately for him, he will have to negotiate 10F after repulsing either constant pressure or an almost certain strong bid from a superior horse like St. Liam. I can’t see this horse getting a soft trip unless St. Liam throws in a complete dud. I can’t see him repulsing St Liam and still being superior enough to hold off all the other 2nd tier horses at 10F. His best chance is that St. Liam runs such a terrible race that he gets an easy trip. I’d want a big price for that.

The rest of the horses are less likely either due to being inferior, running sub par recently, or only having a couple of “back races” that could get them into the thick of it.

Summary:

It’s St. Liam’s race to lose. He’s the best horse and will be bet accordingly. Again, when a horse is earning the best figures, earning them against the best horses, and earning them facing stiff trips on the front end, there is almost no doubt he is best. Therefore there is probably very little or no value betting on or against him on top unless you thiink he won't be able to negotiate 10F from the outside post or you suspect he's going go throw in a dud for some reason.

Personally, I don't see a dud coming. I disagree with the view that Love of Money ran poorly for Dotrow and that could mean that SL will also.

First off, Love of money was coming off a mini layoff. There is a big difference between prepping a horse to win off a layoff against competition that you have a solid edge over (which is how most good layoff trainers earn their good layoff stats) and prepping them to run a peak. Love of Money needed a peak there against many lightly raced improving horse and I think that was unlikely. His one big effort was wildly overrated because he won loose on the lead. Secondly, the horse actually ran extremely well. Despite the fact that it looked like it he might be the controlling speed, the pace wound up being brutal and he did extremely well to hang around for third no matter what the final time figure says. Look at the pace differencial between the Strub and the Sham on the same day. It's huge...and most pace handicapper made the Sham pace fast. So just how well did Love of Money actually run there. Super!

If St.Liam gets beat, it is much more likely to be the result of distance and trip than it is because of the Dutrow ship west.

The second tier of horses are fairly similar in ability and will probably be separated by trip and improvement – with some being more likely to improve and some being more likely to get a favorable trip.

If I thought Truly a Judge was going to be the second choice, I would feel very good about taking a stand against him in the belly of the exacta. However, his odds are likely to be longer so I see no value in my opinion that he’s going to have a tough negotiating 10F after dealing with St Liam (assuming a reasonably sharp St. Liam shows up).

I think this will be a fun race to watch. Barring some really surprising odds, the race looks like a pass.



Post Edited (03-04-05 11:29)