I agree - there are a few reasons to take a stand against Saint Liam (i.e., the ship, the three bo's, a few speedsters in the race, highweight, post 11). He's coming back from that -4 in 28 days - he's used to having more spacing especially after a big one.

With that said, coming up with the right value play is tough. I have have not factored in an off track.

Supah Blitz- I like his chances. Although this horse has been overaced, he has been getting much better spacing since O'Neill took over; at least he hasn't fallen apart. Has those 3 negative #'s to go back to and has paired 2 of them on very short rest. This one could be leaning toward firing a big one off that last one after 49 days.

Island Fashion - another I see improving off last race to that 0 which could put her in the mix with the weight and half-way decent trip.

Lundys' L - nice pattern, Frankel, nice spacing between races on the plus side. 2nd highweight looks to save ground and with repeat of last should be in the mix.

Rock Hard Ten - finally broke through 3YO top under Mandella. Hmmm. Willing to take a stand that he doesn't improve off that in this race.

Congrats - ran those two big eforts but see a bounce coming based on his history of bouncing after 1 or 2 efforts (although with Shug).

Borrego - not impressed with the one isloated top in the mud and although he won his last not happy with the layoff race.

Imperilaism - took him a bit to get back to slow 3YO top (although 2 out of 5 races were turf). Bore in 2 back, short rest between last 2 starts coupled with slow top makes him a toss.

Truly A Judge - this speedster should help the pace but I think those recent negative #'s (2 of them compressed) will take their toll.

Californian - ugly pattern and too slow.

Grand Reward - will help the pace but too slow and no discernible class overseas.

I'll be watching the board, but a 3-horse box of Supah, Island, and Lundy with some straight on Supah is my play.