TGJB,

Assuming pace theories are correct, I think Len's methodology is more likely to resemble Beyer's in these extreme cases unless he uses earlier point times to make his figure.

If he does not, his final time figure will not represent the ability of the horses. It would represent how fast the horses ran. It would then be up to the handicapper to decide whether to pump some of the horses up because an extreme pace impacted many of them. If the handicapper pumped the figures up it would result in a more squared looking set of figures. Len, obviously breaks fewer races out.

I also have no problem with using earlier fractions in the race (like the 6F fraction in a 7F race) to try to determine how good horses are when the entire race collapses due to pace. It could get complicated though because if I am correct, the pace would impact some horses more than others and you might be better off using the 6F point for some of the horses and the 7F point for others - which would produce a reasonably accurate representation of ability but a set of figures that doesn't square within the race itself (beaten lengths) at all.

Maybe that's what Len is doing in some of the races where his figures don't square with yours inside the same race. I do not know.

As always, the key is to know what the hell you working with so you can do what you want with the data.



Post Edited (03-24-05 18:11)