TGJB -

Thanks for the thorough response. I think I'm starting to understand. I guess a lot of your approach to figure-making comes down to the intuition (handicapping in hindsight?) of the figure maker: aided by having ground loss, weight carried, etc. are already built in; guided by information on race time, track speed, wind direction, etc.; and validated by the fact that the figures don't get out of whack over time.