Michael,

I think you're on the money there. One thing I did find is that horses drawn 1 are more likely to be on the lead at the first call than a random breakdown would suggest. You would presume that a jockey in post one makes a bigger effort to get the lead in order to avoid getting chopped off.

Similarly I think we'd be fools if we didn't appreciate that jocks and trainers also make tactical decisions on how a race will set up and make their own plans accordingly.

Cheers,

George