JB,

How comfortable are you with the figure you gave Don Six in the race at Laurel where he got nosed out by Saratoga County. Saratoga County came back and dusted Pico Central in the Dubai race, which would seem to flatter Don Six's race at Laurel. I noticed that you had Don Six's figure dropping three points in that race, off his top in the Aqueduct race right before that. Just wondering if this is one of those you feel is "rock solid" or if this one was more questionable.

The followup to that is that the Carter is a very interesting race, for a 6 horse field. Looks like Beyer has Forest Danger's last race faster than T-Graph. Medallist seems to have a nice pattern, pairing up his top. But "healthy pattern" seems to be an oxymoron when referring to a horse that bears out as often as Medallist does. Don Six has the best top and although I did think he was vulnerable at Laurel at 7 furlongs, his race against Saratoga County does not look so bad now. He has come back and worked 44.3 "breezing". I normally don't pay much attention to workouts, as some trainer last year at the Derby said "Fast horses work fast". But 44.3 breezing is a very sharp workout. I don't want to start a pace discussion again, but I think Don Six might be quicker than Forest Danger and Medallist and I suspect there is some chance that Forest Danger and MEdallist won't run their best races without the lead. Mass Media and Unforgettable Max might be interesting underneath Don Six, trying to get a little value in the exactas. Mass Media has the second best top, but has been miserable in three races at Santa Anita since then. I don't know about believing that the horse "just didn't like Santa ANita" as FRankel said, but at a price, I might buy into it. Unforgettable Max was the horse that everybody on this board seemed to love in the Laurel race. He ran wide and never contended, but did get a decent figure. With the rail draw and getting weight, he is probabaly a contender and value in the exacta for sure. You have to like the jockey change to Victor Espinoza as well, it certainly can't hurt.

I guess Forest Danger goes favorite, with Medallist second choice. If so, I like a win bet on Don Six at 5-2 or so, and exactas over MAss MEdia and Unforgettable Max, reversing for less.

Thoughts?