I haven't read all the posts here so I'm not sure if the following already has been discussed.

So SWEET CATOMINE had problems that caused her to run below the hyped-up expectations of the public at large that bet her down to even money odds in the Santa Anita Derby. Maybe if she hadn't had those issues she would've beaten those bums by many many lengths. Fine. I won't disagree with this.

Now forget her physical problems for the moment and be a "sheets automaton" with me here. Is it such a stretch to have projected that she would bounce off the awesome 1 she had run last out? In April of her 3 year old year? No. [In those well-meaning but maddening Ragozin seminars, Len Friedman will often project the fate of a particular entry by saying something like: "Well, she has a 40% chance of pairing up. She has a 40% chance of bouncing a few points to a 4-ish. And there's a 20% chance she can tube to a 6-ish or above." Gee, thanks Len.]

Reference is made to a prior post I made about the physical problems of a certain Fountain of Youth entrant who STILL "ran his number" even though he couldn't walk - couldn't MOVE!? - a few days before that race. He ran his race despite physical problems.

In the SA Derby, I had projected Shirreffs' GIACOMO to pair up his 4.5 or hang around that level. [I thought he was the most predictable entrant in the race. It seems to me that Sherriff's sheets are posterboy examples for Ragozin players who complain how ThoroGraph lines are too "straight."] Anyway, after his race, I assumed that GIACOMO did indeed hang tough at the level of his prior number. [Maybe Jerry will tells us differently. Nevertheless...] If SWEET CATOMINE finished 3 lengths behind GIACOMO and ran say... a 5-ish or even a 6-ish [did she save ground?], then well... that's not such a totally out-of-whack performance from her.

There's a mysterious element to all of this for sure. But maybe SWEET CATOMINE "ran her race."

JohnTChance