Legitimate points. I obviously have no way of knowing exactly what individual sheets players were thinking 30 yrs ago or today when they assess whether a particular horse will or will not bounce. I'd also agree that part of the theory is that each situation must be considered on its own merits. However, if you look at the explanation & comments on the sites, I think you'll find that they are pretty much taken from the Odds, so there does not seem to have been any restatement or modification of the theory. Nor do I recall ever reading or hearing any of the main proponents of the theory ever suggest the possibility that it should be reconsidered in light of major changes which have taken place over the years. Nor do I know of any published research that considers whether & to what extent horses which might be expected to bounce are in fact bouncing. Let me end by asking you & the others interested in this topic a question: Using a category you feel most familiar with, what % of horses which show significant improvement, as you define & explain it, would you expect to bounce in their next start? What I'm suggesting is that I think that the actual answer is going to be different than you might anticipate.