Re: OPEN LENGTHS (310 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 20, 2005 10:50AM
Eliminating Open Length finishers. I have to assume you mean from the win spot Jbel:
Wood: Probably no decision to make.
Arkansas: Greater Good had an excuse, Andromedas Hero is slow but improving and is a bit of a head case. Flower Alley is not a bad horse
Bluegrass: Most dangerous race of all to eliminate trailers.
Illinois Derby: No decision to make there as well.
The issue is speed:
Bellamy just ran a .46 on a fast track. Prior to that he tossed a .47 in and got worn down by Consolidator. He has a one turn mile of .45.3 at Hallandale
Sun King just turned in a poorish race and Prado got reamed out. He chose this horse over Noble Causeway. I think hes much more prominent Derby day, but have noted his quick 4 marks are in one turn races.
High Limit will be equipped with blinkers and just ran a 46.85 on a much slower surface. I think the rating experiment is over.
Consolidator ran a .46 in the San Felipe on a fast track too and though I think hes a bit slower Lukas has said enough to convince me he's going.
High Fly has run consistently low pace marks. His last was a .46. Though I think he'll settle about a length or two behind the pacers.
Rockport Harbor hasn't paced below 47 at two turns, but hes one I get the feeling certainly can. Watching him in the Lexington will probably be the key to his pace potential. He's certainly a front end type in his Past Performances.
Going Wild may not get in. The question is did he get discouraged chasing Bellamy or was he not right that day. I subscribe to the latter. His last win was on the lead. I think if he draws in Lukas sends him with Consolidator right on his heels.
The Key is gonna be how fast do they go, how far do they let the pace leader slip off. Bellamy has had it all his own way on pace the races hes won. Rocky doesn't know what its like to trail. The trailing experiment for High Limit is over, its Peace Rules or Bust. And I'm not even sure one of these three will have the lead. Theres some horses in here that will want to wing free. It could get interesting.
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