I was at Keeneland this year for the first two weekends and had good results on 2 out of th 6 days I was there.

Your point about Keenleand is well taken, and looking at the 2001 year as an exaple as case in point. Invisible Ink who clunked up the track in the BG (4th by 8.5) improved by 3.2 TG Points in the KD, AP Valentine was 5th by 13 in BG and 7 by 13 in the KD and improved TG's by 1.1, , the Winner of the 2001 BG, Millenium Wind (who won by 5.5 lenghts) and improved his TG's from his previous FG Race in the BG by 5.3 point jump, bounced badly (8.3) in the KD, and second place BG finisher Song and a Prayer improved his TG's by 4.2 points in the BG from his previous race but also bounced in the KD by 11.1 points (13th by 27). Another big bouncer out KEE Lex that year was Keats whos LEX TG was 2 but his KD was 24.1.

Oddly other big jump up horse that year was Balto Star who improved his overall TG figs over a three races from 10.2 to a 0.1 bounced to a 16.1 in the derby.

Don't know if history tells us anything or even how this applies to this years crop of horses but the point about KEE to CD is certainly valid, and perhaps big jump up horses "may" be vunerable in the Derby.

NC Tony