I think you're on the right track concentrating on how to bet it, instead of who to bet on, illustrated in my case again in the Trial, where I keyed Baffert's horse & still managed not to cash. Speaking of Baffert, he was in Wagner's this morning buying powerball tix, quipping that the prize was higher than the Derby purse & there would be no owners to answer to in the event he didn't win. Now that I'm almost caught up, a few for what it's worth observations:
(1) Interesting in the new enviroment that someone like Sheppard had about 30% winners for the Kee meet, while Asmussen was less than 5%. And his horses didn't do anything Sat & Sun, so my inclination is to assume this will be one of the cleaner Derbys, & act on the info rather than waiting.

(2) I've read the negative comments about Mike Smith, but I haven't seen many bad rides over the last month. The jock that has left me unimpressed is Brian Hernandez, as he looks like he's 13 yrs old & does not appear to have enough strength to finish. Re jocks, the piece de resistance at the "new" CD is the Peb mural.

(3) One trainer observation which has seemed to hold up over the last yr or so is Baffert's claim that Calif horses more than hold their own when they ship out of state, the Trial winner being the most recent but not the only example.

(4) I still maintain that the psychological/intimidation factor is an important one in this kind of race, assuming it doesn't become more important, as it was once for Bandini, than the race itself. That might have been a reason he was on the outside in the BG.

(5) The vast majority will be staggering near the end, which is why I think breeding plays as big a role in this race as any, esp when it comes to filling out the bottom of your exotics.

I enjoyed meeting you as well, & wish you luck this weekend.