Re: Developing a Strategy for the Derby (338 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 27, 2005 09:59PM
Tony, I do know that Jerry Bailey thinks Bellamy is going to get to the lead. I respect his handicapping ability, but I'd have to ask him why he was anywhere near the rail with Mr. Sword in the Bluegrass and why he had Birdstone near the rail in the Lanes End last year.
Bellamy has a good sustained turn of foot, but I'm betting hes not exceptionally quick. The best example of it in my opinion is the second quarter in the Gulfstream race. He ran a really solid second fraction after he got rolling. But they all do that there. Sun King ran close to it. The race I would watch again is the Wood and you'll have to decide for yourself if Scrappy broke well enough to mix it up on his layoff. I think its pretty clear Going Wild was off that race and may be working his way back. He's nowhere good enough on the numbers, but I do think he is quick and will be sent in the Derby. I'm counting on Bellamy having to work early and not being rateable. I'm counting on Bailey being wrong. I guess we'll see.