Jerry,

You say,

"It's far more likely that they would all run exactly back to their previous maximum level, than that they would all choose the exact same moment to improve exactly the same amount. Similarly, you often end up with choosing between giving a horse a new top, and three others a pair-up, or giving him a pair-up, and having the other three choose to run EXACTLY the same amount off maximum on EXACTLY the same day..."

Why is it "far more likely" that they all run pairs instead of moving ahead or back together? What are the reasoning or statistics behind this? That they have all chosen the exact same moment to pair up strikes me as no more or less probable.

Thanks,

Mike