I agree somewhat with gvido. I really discount dosage, but there is a little merit to breeding. What I think you need to do is review the lineage in the pedigree precisely. See what each horse actually ran in and how they finished. Evaluate each dam's offspring as well as what the sire has gotten. Parents are important. Grandparents are fairly important. Going back further than that gets remote. Its nowhere near a precise science. Certainly, nothing near speed figure calculation.

If you look at Wilko's dam's pedigree it is not impressive. But if Awesome Again continues to produce he could become a "chef", if hes not already, I don't know. They made Alydar a Chef after Strike the Gold won the Derby and that brough Strike within their bogus parameteres. But its not the Awesome side that is weak in my opinion. Its the mare. Shes got very little stamina in her background. I also dont favor a sprint mare covered by a stamina stallion. I prefer the reverse. Sprint/miler stallion over a stamina mare. I think the last three Derby winners followed that nick and maybe thats why I've been lucky to hit them. (I take that back Smarty was out of a Smile mare...lol..weakest Derby pedigree I ever bet.) This year it could be Wilko or High Limit I suppose.

Lastly, Dosage is passe because our horse dont run the professional and solid distance races anymore, so no one really knows how far they would have gone or how far their get was capable of. You have to figure out other ways of trying to ascertain that. Dosage is Dead.



Post Edited (05-01-05 15:20)