Spa,

I think your big three are all out of the Super Spa.

Can't bet AA off the big number/short rest, bad jockey, super fast workouts intentionally orchestrated by Ritchey. Respect the horse's ability, but never thought he would excel at 1 1/4 and can't change my mind now, at what I think will be very underlaid odds. I think 4-1 is the over/under on AA and he has a shot to go off favored.

Consolidator. 2 of his 3 races this year were awful. I think it is a good rule with Derby preps to forgive one bad three year old race. (see Thunder Gulch). But when 2 of the 3 are lousy and the third one is against the lousy 3 year olds in California this year (on a greasy track), I have to let that horse beat me. I also think Consolidator will be underlaid odds, based on connections. Not short, but underlaind. I put his real odds at 30-1 and would use him at those odds, but I think he goess off between 12 and 15 to 1.

Wilco is a little more interesting. If goes off at 35-1 or higher, I can't blame anybody for using him. Even in a 20 horse field, it will be difficult to duplicate the losuy ride he got from Dettori.

The "real big three" are:

Bellamy Road
Noble Causeway
High Fly.

Granted, I am not going out on the limb you are with your top three (except AA). My longshots in the Tri/Super are Flower Alley, Andromeda's Hero and Coined Silver.